Breadsticks at Olive Garden Highlight the financial strain on America’s middle class

A friend emailed a link about Olive Garden traffic and sales. I created a new table that matches. Call it the bread indicator.

The breadstick indicator

Please consider Heard on the Street: Breadsticks Highlight Financial Strain on America’s Middle Class

Olive Garden, Applebee’s and IHOP are the closest informal economic barometers, according to a study by professors at MIT’s Sloan School. And unlike mom-and-pop restaurants, parent companies Darden Restaurants and Dine Brands helpfully disclose detailed numbers to investors in their quarterly results. The signs for middle-class American consumers are not good.

Darden reported Thursday that same-store sales at Olive Garden fell 1.5% last quarter from a year earlier. In contrast, same-store sales rose 4.4% a year ago and 6.1% and 4.1% in the first two quarters of this fiscal year before falling 1.8% in the fiscal third quarter.

Likewise, Dine Brands Global reported last month that domestic same-restaurant sales at Applebee’s and IHOP fell 4.6% and 1.7%, respectively, during that company’s fiscal first quarter.

Placer.ai also points to a much healthier trend at Ruth’s Chris, the high-end steakhouse Darden bought a year ago and for which it has yet to reveal same-store trends. Traffic at that chain in May rose 8.3% compared with a 3.9% increase for Olive Garden.

Olive Garden traffic is up 3.9 percent, but same-store sales are down 1.5 percent. Are people filling up on unlimited bread? Drink less wine?

Meanwhile, traffic at Ruth’s Chris is up 8.3 percent.

I’m not sure I believe traffic is up 3.9 percent at Olive Garden, but I do believe the mismatch with Ruth’s Chris as well as the decline in Olive Garden store sales numbers.

Retail sales were very weak in May counting negative reviews

On June 18, I commented Retail sales were very weak in May counting negative reviews

The Olive Garden article inspired the main board. Retail sales are also weak elsewhere.

Housing starts and permits fall to four-year low

Top of the day: The Bloomberg Econoday consensus had housing starts and lets both rise. Some tables show how much they have fallen.

I noticed earlier today Housing starts and permits fall to four-year low

Few can afford houses.

Job openings against unemployment seem to have started a recession

Unemployment is rising and job openings have fallen. It seems to be in recession. Let’s investigate with a series of photos.

Vulnerability is widespread. For discussion, please see Job openings against unemployment seem to have started a recession